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This week brings us the release of seven monthly and quarterly reports for the bond market to digest. Two of those reports can be considered much less important than the others, but with data scheduled for release each day of the week we will still likely see movement in rates from day to day.

The first report of the week is February's Existing Home Sales late tomorrow morning. It will give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. Its sister report- New Home Sales, will be posted Wednesday morning. Since tomorrow's is the day's only data, it may influence bond trading enough to cause a slight change in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling both reports to show a decline in sales.

The next report and the first important data of the week is March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late Tuesday morning. This index gives us an indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that confidence is falling, it would indicate that consumers are more apt to delay making large purchases. If the report reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday morning. It is expected to show no change from February's reading of 75.0.

Wednesday's important data comes from the Commerce Department, who will post February's Durable Goods Orders. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking new orders for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. This data is known to be volatile from month to month but is still considered to be of high importance. Analysts are expecting it to show an increase in orders of approximately 1.0%. A larger incre ase would be considered a negative for bonds and could lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.

The next relevant data is Thursday's final revision to the 4th Quarter GDP. This is the second and final revision to January's preliminary reading and is expected to show no change from the 0.6% reading that was posted last month. Analysts are now more concerned with next month's preliminary reading of the 1st quarter than data from three to six months ago, so I don't expect this report to affect mortgage rates.

There are two relevant reports scheduled for release Friday. The first is February's Personal Income & Outlays report. This data helps us measure consumers' ability to spend and current spending habits, which is important to the mortgage market because of the influence that consumer spending related information has on the financial markets. If a consumer's income is rising, they are more likely to make additional purchase s. This raises inflation concerns and has a negative affect on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% rise in income and a 0.2% rise in spending.

The second report comes from the University of Michigan at 9:45 AM ET. Their revision to the March consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend just as Tuesday's Consumer Confidence Index did. It is expected to show a small increase from the previous reading of 70.5.

Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important of the week. I am expecting the CCI or Durable Goods Orders reports to have the biggest influence on mortgage rates, so by default we can declare Tuesday or Wednesday to be of high importance. The truth is that rather than a significant change in rates one or two days, we will most likely see a slight change several days. Accordingly, the risk of floating an interest rate this week is not as great as last week, but with a low expectation of much improvement in rates the next several days, I am holding the lock recommendations for the time being.

Under a plan approved by the Florida Taxation and Budget Reform Commission Monday, voters will have a chance in November to approve an across-the-board property tax cut averaging 25 percent. The measure also includes a provision giving businesses, second homes and other properties that do not qualify for a homestead exemption a 5 percent cap on annual tax increases. The proposal does not include a mandatory services tax; FAR lobbyists and other business groups successfully argued to remove the services tax provision several weeks ago.

This is an article picked up by the Florida Association of Realtors from The Miami Herald about the new tax proposals.

This week brings us the release of four economic releases for the bond and mortgage markets to digest along with a 10-year Treasury Note auction. None of the important economic news is scheduled for release until Thursday. Two of the four reports are considered to be of high importance to the markets. This means that we will likely see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week.

The first piece of news comes Tuesday morning with the release of January's Goods and Services Trade Balance. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week's least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much.

Thursday morning brings us the release of February's Retail Sales data. This report is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial m arkets. This month's report is expected to show an increase in sales of approximately 0.1%. If we see a decline in sales, the bond market should rise and mortgage rates will likely fall. If it reveals a larger increase, I expect to see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise Thursday morning.

The Labor Department will post February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) early Friday morning. This index measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index- the overall reading and the core data. The core data is more important and watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If the index shows a large increase, inflation concerns may rise, making long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. This would lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% rise in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data.

Also on tap Friday is the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for March at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending will likely rise, we may see mortgage rates move higher late Friday morning if the CPI doesn't show as any surprises. It is expected to show a reading of 70.5, down slightly from February's 70.8.

Overall, it will likely be another active week in the mortgage market. Thursday or Friday both can be labeled as the most important day of the week. Either can lead to a significant change to mortgage pricing. The Treasury auction is scheduled for Thursday, but its results will not b e posted until 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. Generally speaking, this week is definitely a good one to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if an interest rate has not been locked yet, particularly the latter part of the week.

TAMPA, Fla. – Feb. 22, 2008 – As the big national insurance companies such as State Farm, Allstate and Nationwide continue to pull up stakes in Florida, smaller unheard-of companies have stepped up to fill some of the void.

They’re writing new policies, lowering rates and giving homeowners an alternative to state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corp., Florida’s insurer of last resort. In fact, after months of tremendous growth, Citizens, the state’s largest property insurer, has about 9 percent fewer policyholders than last fall. Citizens’ policy count has dropped from a high of 1.4 million in November to 1.274 million now, a loss of about 126,000 policies.

The reason: A handful of smaller Florida-based companies have taken thousands of homeowners’ policies out of Citizens. Last year, insurers removed about 248,000 policies from Citizens, up from nearly 68,000 in 2006. What’s more, the new carriers have prevented hundreds, perhaps thousands, of Florida homeowners from joining Citizens in the first place.

“We are writing a lot of homes that would otherwise be in Citizens right now,” said David Howard, chief executive of St. Petersburg-based Edison Insurance, a small but growing company. “The Florida domestics are picking up the slack. They’re writing the majority of business right now.”

Between January 2006 and September 2007, the industry wrote more policies than it dropped. During that time, nearly 4 million homeowners’ policies were dropped while 4.4 million new policies were written.

The smaller companies employ different strategies. Some take policies only from state-backed Citizens. Others prefer to compete in the traditional marketplace. One writes policies only for homes worth at least $1 million that meet current building codes.

“We have a tremendous appetite for business on the west coast of Florida,” said Ross Buchmueller, CEO of Privilege Underwriters Reciprocal Exchange, a Fort Lauderdale-based insurer known as PURE, which specializes in large homes worth $1 million or more.

Also, the smaller companies have an advantage over the insurance giants. They’re more flexible because they have fewer investors to answer to and can adapt to customers’ needs more quickly. What’s more, they’re committed to one market: Florida.

American Integrity Insurance (1-888-359-5515)

American Integrity Insurance, a Tampa-based insurer with 105,000 policies, got all of its business from Citizens. All the takeouts were voluntary, an important element that should be preserved, said Bob Ritchie, the company’s CEO.

It’s important to be “a true consumer’s choice,” Ritchie said. “It allows companies like mine to compete on service and relationships. At the end of the day, people like to do business with people they like.”

The company, established in September 2006, will begin selling coverage in the traditional voluntary market in April, Ritchie said.

“We are writing both older and newer homes,” he said.

In Florida, a successful property insurer must acquire plenty of reinsurance, keep rates competitive and spread the risk, Ritchie said.

“When you look at our portfolio, it is optimally spread throughout the state,” he said. “We’re not betting the storm is not going to happen.”

Edison Insurance (1-800-657-6618)

St. Petersburg-based Edison Insurance has about 24,000 policies and a network of about 500 agents. It hopes to add 8,000 more policies this year, said Howard, the CEO.

Edison, established in 2005, is writing policies on homes of all types. Most of its policies are in South Florida.

“Because the market has gotten so competitive, our sweet spot is much larger than it used to be,” Howard said. “There’s really not a lot of homes we wouldn’t write. We write within 1,500 feet of tidal water.”

Edison’s portfolio doesn’t include any takeouts from Citizens.

“The only time we would consider that is if the market gets too competitive,” Howard said.

Edison cut its 2008 rates by more than 30 percent. Premiums for Edison’s policyholders average about $1,800 a year, Howard said.

The new Florida-based insurers are picking up thousands of policyholders that were dropped by State Farm, Allstate and other insurance giants, Howard said.

“They’re writing the majority of business right now,” he said.

Most of the smaller companies, he said, are well-funded and have sufficient reinsurance, backup coverage for insurance companies. Edison, he said, has enough coverage to pay for damage created by multiple storms.

“You got to make sure you have a very strong reinsurance program that protects the surplus of the company so you can be there to deliver when the storm hits,” Howard said.

PURE (1-888-813-7873)

PURE provides coverage to a specific market. The homes must be worth $1 million or more and built to standards that equal or exceed building codes.

“A quarter of what we do is beachfront,” said Buchmueller, the company’s CEO. “Our business is extremely selective. The criteria to gain entry is very narrow.”

The member-owned insurer has about 2,000 members and 3,500 policies, including auto policies. Buchmueller expects the company to double in size by year’s end.

In addition to its selective coverage, PURE is unique in that its members contribute 10 percent of their premium to the company’s cash surplus each year.

“We do not resemble in any way any other company that you could speak to,” Buchmueller said. “If we broke even, we would still grow surplus by 10 percent a year.”

Also, PURE limits its membership to 425 members per county, a policy that helps keep risk and exposure reasonable, he said.

PURE’s growth is poised to soar next year. That’s because, beginning in December, state law requires state-backed Citizens to drop customers with homes worth $1 million or more.

“It’s almost $20 billion of insured values,” Buchmueller said. “All of this business is going to find its way into the private market, and we think we’re well-positioned to take large chunks of that.”

American Strategic Insurance (1-866-274-8765)

American Strategic Insurance of St. Petersburg was established 10 years ago and has 260,000 policyholders, up from less than 200,000 in 2005.

The company has lowered its rates about 24 percent, on average, and is writing new policies. But the company doesn’t want to get much bigger, citing the escalating cost of private reinsurance.

However, American Strategic CEO John Auer said his company is working with investors in hopes of licensing a new Florida-based insurer.

“We don’t want to grow ASI substantially bigger, but we will find other companies that do want to grow the insurance business in Florida,” Auer said.

Auer attributed the company’s lower rates to a combination of reduced reinsurance costs and “good trends in both losses and expenses.” Last year, the state expanded the Hurricane Catastrophe Fund by $12 billion, which allowed companies to buy more reinsurance at a lower rate than the private market.

American Strategic’s business doesn’t include any takeouts from Citizens.

“We’ve tried to win business through giving good service,” Auer said. “We try to assign a rate to every risk. If the rate is low enough, we get it.”

As a series of hurricanes struck the state in 2004 and 2005, many insurers stopped writing new policies. American Strategic, however, continued to grow.

“We never closed,” Auer said. “We’ve grown every year.”

Tampa Tribune, Fla., Russell Ray.

 

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