This week brings us the release of four economic releases for the bond and mortgage markets to digest along with a 10-year Treasury Note auction. None of the important economic news is scheduled for release until Thursday. Two of the four reports are considered to be of high importance to the markets. This means that we will likely see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week.

The first piece of news comes Tuesday morning with the release of January's Goods and Services Trade Balance. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week's least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much.

Thursday morning brings us the release of February's Retail Sales data. This report is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial m arkets. This month's report is expected to show an increase in sales of approximately 0.1%. If we see a decline in sales, the bond market should rise and mortgage rates will likely fall. If it reveals a larger increase, I expect to see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise Thursday morning.

The Labor Department will post February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) early Friday morning. This index measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index- the overall reading and the core data. The core data is more important and watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If the index shows a large increase, inflation concerns may rise, making long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. This would lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% rise in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data.

Also on tap Friday is the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for March at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending will likely rise, we may see mortgage rates move higher late Friday morning if the CPI doesn't show as any surprises. It is expected to show a reading of 70.5, down slightly from February's 70.8.

Overall, it will likely be another active week in the mortgage market. Thursday or Friday both can be labeled as the most important day of the week. Either can lead to a significant change to mortgage pricing. The Treasury auction is scheduled for Thursday, but its results will not b e posted until 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. Generally speaking, this week is definitely a good one to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if an interest rate has not been locked yet, particularly the latter part of the week.