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New tax proposal.
March 18th, 2008 4:59 PM
Under a plan approved by the Florida Taxation and Budget Reform Commission Monday, voters will have a chance in November to approve an across-the-board property tax cut averaging 25 percent. The measure also includes a provision giving businesses, second homes and other properties that do not qualify for a homestead exemption a 5 percent cap on annual tax increases. The proposal does not include a mandatory services tax; FAR lobbyists and other business groups successfully argued to remove the services tax provision several weeks ago.

This is an article picked up by the Florida Association of Realtors from The Miami Herald about the new tax proposals.

Posted by Maria Marandici on March 18th, 2008 4:59 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 03/23/2008
March 23rd, 2008 9:01 PM
This week brings us the release of seven monthly and quarterly reports for the bond market to digest. Two of those reports can be considered much less important than the others, but with data scheduled for release each day of the week we will still likely see movement in rates from day to day.

The first report of the week is February's Existing Home Sales late tomorrow morning. It will give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. Its sister report- New Home Sales, will be posted Wednesday morning. Since tomorrow's is the day's only data, it may influence bond trading enough to cause a slight change in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling both reports to show a decline in sales.

The next report and the first important data of the week is March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late Tuesday morning. This index gives us an indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that confidence is falling, it would indicate that consumers are more apt to delay making large purchases. If the report reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday morning. It is expected to show no change from February's reading of 75.0.

Wednesday's important data comes from the Commerce Department, who will post February's Durable Goods Orders. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking new orders for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. This data is known to be volatile from month to month but is still considered to be of high importance. Analysts are expecting it to show an increase in orders of approximately 1.0%. A larger incre ase would be considered a negative for bonds and could lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.

The next relevant data is Thursday's final revision to the 4th Quarter GDP. This is the second and final revision to January's preliminary reading and is expected to show no change from the 0.6% reading that was posted last month. Analysts are now more concerned with next month's preliminary reading of the 1st quarter than data from three to six months ago, so I don't expect this report to affect mortgage rates.

There are two relevant reports scheduled for release Friday. The first is February's Personal Income & Outlays report. This data helps us measure consumers' ability to spend and current spending habits, which is important to the mortgage market because of the influence that consumer spending related information has on the financial markets. If a consumer's income is rising, they are more likely to make additional purchase s. This raises inflation concerns and has a negative affect on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% rise in income and a 0.2% rise in spending.

The second report comes from the University of Michigan at 9:45 AM ET. Their revision to the March consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend just as Tuesday's Consumer Confidence Index did. It is expected to show a small increase from the previous reading of 70.5.

Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important of the week. I am expecting the CCI or Durable Goods Orders reports to have the biggest influence on mortgage rates, so by default we can declare Tuesday or Wednesday to be of high importance. The truth is that rather than a significant change in rates one or two days, we will most likely see a slight change several days. Accordingly, the risk of floating an interest rate this week is not as great as last week, but with a low expectation of much improvement in rates the next several days, I am holding the lock recommendations for the time being.

Posted by Maria Marandici on March 23rd, 2008 9:01 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Mortgage news
March 10th, 2008 5:36 AM
This week brings us the release of four economic releases for the bond and mortgage markets to digest along with a 10-year Treasury Note auction. None of the important economic news is scheduled for release until Thursday. Two of the four reports are considered to be of high importance to the markets. This means that we will likely see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week.

The first piece of news comes Tuesday morning with the release of January's Goods and Services Trade Balance. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week's least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much.

Thursday morning brings us the release of February's Retail Sales data. This report is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial m arkets. This month's report is expected to show an increase in sales of approximately 0.1%. If we see a decline in sales, the bond market should rise and mortgage rates will likely fall. If it reveals a larger increase, I expect to see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise Thursday morning.

The Labor Department will post February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) early Friday morning. This index measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index- the overall reading and the core data. The core data is more important and watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If the index shows a large increase, inflation concerns may rise, making long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. This would lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% rise in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data.

Also on tap Friday is the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for March at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending will likely rise, we may see mortgage rates move higher late Friday morning if the CPI doesn't show as any surprises. It is expected to show a reading of 70.5, down slightly from February's 70.8.

Overall, it will likely be another active week in the mortgage market. Thursday or Friday both can be labeled as the most important day of the week. Either can lead to a significant change to mortgage pricing. The Treasury auction is scheduled for Thursday, but its results will not b e posted until 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. Generally speaking, this week is definitely a good one to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if an interest rate has not been locked yet, particularly the latter part of the week.


Posted by Maria Marandici on March 10th, 2008 5:36 AMPost a Comment (0)

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